With the 2018 midterm elections upcoming on Tuesday, Nov. 6, constituents, politicians, and business leaders across the country are keeping a close eye on the races most likely to impact them—both within and well beyond their own state lines. This year’s elections hold a particular importance; in several states, newly elected leadership will have a say in 2021 redistricting. This carries the potential to increase the congressional seats for either democrats or republicans in places including Ohio, Florida, and Michigan, influencing either party’s advantage through the next decade.
McGuireWoods Consulting, the lobbying and public affairs section of the McGuireWoods law firm, is acutely aware of what the 2018 midterms mean for its clients. In a new report, the organization has outlined each of next week’s elections, including those for governor, attorney general, and state legislature. Additionally, McGuireWoods Consulting breaks down ballot initiatives and culls predictions from publicly available sources, marking states by race on a scale from “safe” to “likely” to “leaning” to “toss-up.”
In Alaska, for example, the senate is projected at “safe Republican,” while the house is a toss-up. Stability in high oil prices, the report says, might play a role in voters’ decisions. And in the closely watched Florida races, both the attorney general and gubernatorial seats could go either way.
“We think for our clients to have a global understanding of the impact of the elections on the way they do business is critical,” Mona Mohib, the senior vice president of McGuireWoods Consulting’s Federal Public Affairs group, said of the firm’s reasons for building the brief. “We pride ourselves on being able to provide them the most important and significant information that helps them in their own planning process as they put together their business priorities.”
Per the election report, nine of the 36 available gubernatorial seats are toss-ups, as are seven of the 30 for attorney general, and four for the 43 chambers at stake in the state senate. Only Alaska is projected as neither safely Republican nor Democrat in the guide published by McGuireWoods. Even so, projections are subject to change based on the latest available data.
With so many races in key states in flux, the McGuireWoods midterm report has positioned itself as the go-to resource for clients whose businesses plans are contingent on these local outcomes—even if statewide races aren’t the ones receiving the most attention.
“There’s a natural focus on what’s happening on the federal level. The media is going to be very focused on, ‘Does the house flip? What is happening on the senate? Do any incumbents lose?’” Mohib said. “And we are focused on all of it too. But it is also important for our clients and others to know that all of these races are happening across the country—36 races for governor, 30 races for state attorney general, 45 states that are holding elections for legislative seats. And with these elected officials around the country playing a very critical policy-making role, we wanted to be sure our clients were aware and tracking.”
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