Parliamentary elections and the political crisis in Kyrgyzstan

October 9, 2020

 

The parliamentary election`s aftermath in Kyrgyzstan has since paralyzed not only the Parliament but also the Presidential Office and local authorities, while much business activity has also ground to a halt.

How long this suspension of business activities continues and whether it leads to an investor exodus of Kyrgyzstan remains to be seen. However, the risk of a prolonged political crisis and power vacuum until the next election is significant, while some commentators are already talking of radical scenarios such as civil war and the risk of state disintegration.

Much will depend on whether acting President Jeenbekov will retire or instead try to secure his position (since he introduced a state of emergency in Bishkek on Oct.9). The latter move would almost certainly lead to a worsening of the conflict, but right now the former looks more likely, largely due to him losing control over the enforcement agencies. At the same time, it is possible that the opposition may seize power by force, following the path of the revolutions of 2005 and 2010.

This memo analyzes the reasons of the current political crisis, future scenarios, as well as presents the consequences and recommendations for foreign business.

Download the full text.