Geopolitical factors, large deals and markets operating at different speeds: first-half data for 2025 confirms that we are in a paradoxical environment. And that means huge potential, if you know how to read it.
Less volume, more impact
The M&A market in Spain has indeed dropped by 37% so far in 2025, with transactions totalling EUR18.188 billion. The blame, in large part, is attributable on the Trump effect after the US election, which has disturbed geopolitical calm and frozen strategic decisions. But, remarkably, although the number of deals and mid-market activity (above EUR25 million) is down by 31%, deal values increased by 73% compared to 2024. The largest 15 deals add up to EUR8.480 billion: none are above EUR2.1 billion, but they reflect that buyers are betting on what counts. Sectors such as energy and financial services are setting the pace: Cirsa is being listed, with a valuation of ~EUR2.5 billion, Bondalti has launched a takeover bid over Ercross, and Swiss Life is investing in Eliance. Is it the right time to make a move? Only if you do it strategically, with a focus on reputation, and a sharp eye on regulation.
International and local
2025 is bringing new players: buyers from the UAE, South Africa, the UK, Singapore, the US, Malta, Ukraine… they´re looking for attractive valuations and stable regulatory frameworks. What do they need? Firms which can work across jurisdictions, with expertise in international taxation and compliance, and a global perspective. At the same time, national private equity is proving its maturity: Inveready has raised EUR500 million to invest in Avatel and Tekman, and there is dry powder waiting to be activated. In addition, Kreab is becoming a leading name in the corporate reputational arena, advising on 24 deals in the first half of the year and demonstrating that communication is a strategic area of focus. In the meanwhile, Japan is beating records: USD232 billion in deals in six months- a contrast which invites a global perspective.
Strategic Oportunities in M&A
- AI and digitalisation: One in five professionals is already using AI to optimise searches, due diligence, negotiation and integration, and Deloitte predicts that AI will be a key driving force during 2025.
- Family companies in flux: Family enterprises comprise 92% of Spain´s business fabric, generating 70% of jobs. 27% of their owners are planning acquisitions for this year, and 29% are seeking strategic alliances. Sectors such as energy, technology, pharma and agri-food are making moves driven by succession planning or consolidation.
- Funds which rotate assets: National and international funds are rotating portfolios post-pandemic, freeing up capital for reinvestment. This opens new flows for companies with strategic vision.
- Renewable energies and energy infrastructure:In Spain and Portugal, more than EUR3.1 billion energy deals have closed in just three months. Iberdrola and Endesa are leading large transactions, in a sign that this sector is fertile ground.
- Defence and dual industries: Spain is positioning Indra as a national defence champion, with multiple acquisitions and the objective to double income by 2028- a clear opportunity in the public-private sector.
- Technology, health and TMT: TMT, health and food are leading the way. In healthcare, AI applied to medical devices and clinical data is expected to drive M&A in the coming quarters.
What this means
All this represents an opportunity to embrace versatility and anticipation. Es una oportunidad para vestirse de versatilidad y anticipación.
- Strategic Due Diligence: Geopolitical mapping, ESG and sectorial intelligence.
- Cross-border “with soul”: Internationalisation requires compliance, taxation and communication to be aligned with cultural sensitivity.
- Integrated Communications: Firms now tell stories. Complex deals are being prepared for public scrutiny.
- Sectorial know-how: Energy, tech, pharma, defence… these are niches which require non-generic expertise.
- IA as a legal tool: From better due diligence to the modelling of post-merger scenarios, AI integration is becoming not just more common, but more sophisticated.
We have fewer transactions, but more value. Higher risk, yes, but also a launching pad for differentiation.
At Confianz, we combine legal vision, geopolitical intelligence, sectorial expertise and strategic communication. If your goal is to go beyond the paperwork- to tell the story, anticipate challenges, and execute with a human touch, we are ready.
