Good prospects for Spanish M&A in 2025
2025 has been labelled a “retreat year.” But let´s not get mistaken: fewer deals do not equate to fewer opportunities. In fact, it is often during difficult years that the best decisions are made. What matters is not the number of deals, but their quality. Between January and April there were 931 transactions, 20% less than in the same period in 2024, and their value decreased by 18%. But if we consider only these figures, we lose focus.
This moment demands discretion, not paralysis. I follow the market very closely and I believe we are witnessing a time of consolidation, not losses. There is less noise, yes. But there is also greater clarity on what sectors and profiles generate real value. Real estate stays firm, with 204 deals. Business services, with a fall of just 6%, is proving resilient. Even the 45% hit in the technology sector can be interpreted as streamlining- less hype, higher standards.
And let´s not forget international activity. Spain continues to attract capital. France leads in investment by amount, with over EUR2.3 billion. The UK and US are not far behind. Spanish companies are also investing abroad: Portugal, the UK and US remain favourites, and this is no coincidence. It´s a strategic stance where positioning is key.
Fewer transactions, but more strategic. What is happening in private equity and venture capital is revealing. Private equity has seen fewer deals (104, a 23% decrease), but the average ticket has gone up. The 18 transactions with non-confidential amounts total over EUR7.5 billion. In venture capital, although there are fewer deals, mobilised capital increased by 30%. Investors are clearly taking more considered decisions. With better due diligence. With higher standards. In other words, they are investing better.
A key strength right now is the capacity to identify undervalued assets. Many solid targets are currently underrated due to external factors, and this opens a unique window to purchase at very competitive prices. It´s about having mid-term vision. Some of the best acquisitions of the last decade were completed in slow years, and today we are witnessing something similar. Well-advised companies know that the perfect deal rarely emerges under ideal conditions. That´s why, when the fundamentals are solid, it´s best not to wait.
Right now, sectors such as defence, AI, advanced sensors or dual-purpose software are attracting a lot of interest.
It´s not all about the market. It´s easy to point at uncertainty: the US election, geopolitical tensions, the “tariff tornado”. But the real challenge is how we respond to this environment. In 2025, the capacity to properly structure a deal, to anticipate regulatory uncertainty and understand the strategic logic behind a merger are more valuable than ever.
The second half of the year will be more active. There are good reasons to be optimistic. It is expected that more than 150 sizeable deals will close between June and December. The EUR14.1 billion aid package can revitalise sectors such as infrastructure and digitalisation. In addition, many transactions that were paused due to financing issues or political risks could be resumed from the summer.
From our perspective, the Spanish mid-market presents the best opportunities. There are companies with consolidated technologies, committed teams and a solid market share, who need strategic partners to take the next step. There are also ongoing corporate transactions where streamlining or the pursuit of synergies can unlock hidden value. Let´s continue working with strategic vision, pragmatism and attention to detail.
